Watch the full video of this Space session on Gamma Prime’s YouTube channel
Space session with Anna MacMillan (Founder of WIN), Mati Greenspan (Founder & CEO at Quantum Economics), Chaman Malhi (Managing Director at Gamma Prime), Faraj Abutalibov (CBDO & Co-Founder at CrossCurve), and Dean Thomas (Trader & CEO at Stealth Capital)
Gamma Prime X Space brings together leading voices in finance and Web3 to dissect the turbulent global economic landscape. From U.S. stagflation risks and investor uncertainty to the rise of safe-haven assets and India’s economic boom, the panel dives into what these shifts mean for markets, technology, and the future of investing. Featuring Chaman, Dean Thomas (Stealth Capital), Faraj Abutalibov (CrossCurve), Mati Greenspan (Quantum Economics), and Anna from WIN, this conversation challenges conventional narratives with candid insights and bold perspectives.
Chaman
All right, welcome Anna, welcome Faraj. And we’re just going to wait for some people to join as we had some technical difficulties starting at 8 o’clock AM PST, at least on the hour. I’m excited to get into a conversation with some old friends and new friends.
Today we’re going to have a pretty special and amazing chat with what I call giants. I always like to be in a room where I’m not the smartest person, not the strongest person, and I get to walk on the shoulders of giants such as Faraj, Anna, Mati, and more.
We’ll start shortly. Make yourselves comfortable.
All right, everybody. Welcome to Gamma Prime’s X Space, where we get deep into the weeds of what’s going on in the world. Today we are joined by Dean Thomas from Stealth Capital, Faraj from CrossCurve, as well as Mati from Quanta Economics, and Anna from WIN.
Before we get into the introductions with everybody, we can kind of do a semi-mic check. I want to open up with an icebreaker for everybody tuning in. We are going to talk about the US economic crisis, India’s boom, which I’m really happy about because guess what I am? Indian. And UK’s confidence tests. Basically, which markets should you trust? We’re going to get into it with some leaders, tastemakers, and mavens – in my opinion, giants in the space.
But before we dive into the heavy stuff, let’s start with something a little bit lighter. I’ll start with either Faraj or Anna. Let’s start with Anna. Anna, I’m going to ask you a question before we dive into the heavy stuff.
You can either tell us about a device, gadget, or piece of software that you love, or something more interesting to me: tell the audience and us about a gadget or piece of software you thought you could never live without, but is sitting in a box today. Why don’t we start with Anna?
Anna
Good evening, everyone. I think the answer is pretty straightforward. I used to think I would never live without my iPod, but yeah, there it is, replaced.
Speaker 2
Awesome. A single-purpose device not making it in the world today. Who would have thought? Thank you, Anna.
Mati, how are you doing?
Mati
GM, GM.
Chaman
I love what you were bringing to the table last week, man. It’s good to have you back. Did you catch the question? Go ahead.
Mati
Yeah. I don’t know. I used to be big on my Nintendo. I thought that would last forever, but nope. Those things only – they have a shelf life.
Chaman
For sure. We’re going way back. I mean, I will challenge you to a game of Mario Kart any day. I know I’m going one generation next, but let me do a follow-up, Mati.
Have you replaced your Nintendo with any other type of device? Are you making YouTube videos with headphones on and everyone following you, or have you moved on from that part of your life?
Mati
Well, I replaced it with a newer Nintendo, but no. It’s my son, who is six, who is the gamer. I don’t generally have much time for it. I’ll play with him every once in a while, but it’s no longer a passion of mine.
Chaman
I hear you, man. I actually had to go to meetings to get off of Counter-Strike.
Mati
Oh my gosh.
Chaman
They’re in true space every Friday morning, yeah.
Mati
Wow. So you know what I’m saying then.
Chaman
I mean, there are just so many worthy ideals to push forward, but it was a good pastime. Thanks for that, Mati.
Hey, Faraj, can you think of anything that you’re not touching anymore, but you thought you couldn’t live without as it relates to gadget or software? Or maybe something you just can’t live without? Talk to me.
Faraj
So I would say email, especially in the work environment. Everyone in crypto seems to be using more Telegram and other messengers like WhatsApp, and slowly, even in other aspects of life, those are replacing traditional email. I still have it for some things, but definitely I don’t use it as often as previously.
Chaman
Awesome. Thanks for sharing, man.
And Dean, welcome.
Dean
What’s up, guys? How are you doing?
Chaman
Life is good, man. How are you?
Dean
I am good. It’s good to see that the market is finally correcting a little bit.
Chaman
Is that only good because you dropped your trade?
Dean
I think when I first got into crypto, I started buying using Coinbase Pro. And it’s been years since I’ve traded anything on Coinbase Pro because the fees and their execution is dogshit, but I guess that would be one. I think it’s just become like a glorified USDC, USD on-ramp or off-ramp at this point.
Chaman
All right. Love it, man.
And maybe I’ll answer the question. So a device that I can’t live without – honestly, I’m going to go a little bit out of the park. Anna was talking about a single-purpose device that she’s never going to use because it got replaced. I’m old school, man. I still use a wristwatch, and I actually use it to tell the time.
There’s something about a piece of mechanical technology that sits on your wrist that you know is going to keep on ticking probably well long after I’ll stop ticking. Something that could be passed down through generations. Worst case scenario, it’s going to tell the right time at least twice a day.
So yeah, call me old school, but I like the idea of a device that doesn’t do everything, such as tell me my heart rate or answer my phone, sitting on my wrist. And if I want to know what time it is, I just look at my wrist. Love it. That’ll never change.
All right. Why don’t we do this before we get into the weeds? I’d love for everyone to take a minute to introduce themselves to the audience. Let’s start with Anna. Why don’t you tell us a little bit about yourself and about WIN?
Anna
Hello there again. So yeah, just to tell you a little bit about WIN: WIN is the Women Investment Network, and it’s a project that we’ve been putting together for over a year now. The main idea of this is to ensure that we can serve investors across the world better. And most importantly, that we work towards shaping the allocators for the next generation. And yeah, that’s the mission and everyone’s invited to support us.
Chaman
Awesome. Thank you. Let’s move it over to Mati.
Mati
Hi, my name is Mati Greenspan. I’m the founder and CEO of Quantum Economics. I was the Senior Market Analyst at eToro for seven and a half years. And I am a Licensed Portfolio Manager in the European Union.
Quantum Economics is a network of builders in the Web3, AI, and quantum space, building the future of technology. We’ve got several spinoff companies already. Number one is Quantum Expeditions, where we’re mining Bitcoin using natural gas. And Quara Finance, which is an AI-powered, self-custodial mobile wallet.
Chaman
Awesome. Thank you for the introduction, Mati. Always a pleasure to have you.
And Faraj, the man, the myth, the legend. Before you introduce yourself, Faraj, I met him in Denver, and one of the first perfect strangers invited me and welcomed me with open arms. I feel like this is a person who brings a room to life. So with that, Faraj, why don’t you go ahead and introduce yourself? I thought I’d lay it out for you.
Faraj
Yeah, thanks a lot, man. Thank you very much for having me here. I’m Faraj. I’m a co-founder of CrossCurve. This is a cross-chain data and liquidity protocol. We basically decentralize the messaging. We have our own bridge. We have layer zero, wormhole, XLR, and large protocols combined.
We believe that at no point there should be dependence on a single bridge, especially for large transactions. We also work very closely with Curve Finance to solve the problem of fragmented liquidity. We basically make Curve cross-chain across 22 EVM chains, creating ultra-low slippages.
I’m also a co-founder of the Crypto Executives community. It’s a 3,000-member C-level community, very well known for basically knowing most of the powerful people in crypto and connected to 700 VCs. So there is a small advisory for the project. I’m happy to support.
Fun fact: I was 15 years in oil and gas before crypto, so if you need anything in oil and gas, let me know as well. I’m happy to support.
Chaman
All right. You heard that, listeners, especially if you have something Web3-related that serves oil and gas. Faraj just might be the person who can help you.
Mati
I definitely do, and I would love to talk offline. With Faraj. Absolutely.
Chaman
There you have it. Love it. Hey, Dean, how are you doing?
Dean
What’s up, man? I started my career off on Wall Street. I was at Goldman and then Blackstone. I was an executive at Polygon. I made some money, and now I trade very actively across equities, options, futures, firms, crypto.
Chaman
Yeah, that’s it. Awesome. Well, we have quite an eclectic group here, all with a lot of tenure, experience, and wisdom in their own right. Let’s get into it.
We’re talking US economic crisis, India’s boom, and the UK confidence test. Let’s start with our friends down south. I’m from Canada, so they’re my friends down south. Let’s talk about stagflation.
If anybody isn’t aware, stagflation is basically just an economic condition: slow growth, high unemployment, rising prices – just basically a shit show. Let’s talk about that, the risk of a shit show rising. Reuters survey showed that 70% of investors expect stagflation within the next year. Inflation is up, it’s still running 1% above what the Fed’s target was. The Fed may cut rates in September, but no one really knows when it’s going to happen.
My question to the room is: what steps do you think the US could take to handle stagflation without slowing growth down too much? No one’s going to jump. I’m going to pick somebody. Why don’t we start with Mati?
Mati
Thanks for asking. I didn’t really realize that the US was in danger of stagflation. I thought they were still trying to fight inflation. I haven’t really been focused on macroeconomics for a few years.
The way I understand it, at the moment, you’re talking about the Fed and their unwillingness to cut rates. Obviously, we’ve seen Donald Trump’s response to that. That’s been a big hockey political issue. The way me and my team are looking at this is that Jerome Powell is of the old guard and is actively trying to do the opposite of what Donald Trump is saying.
There isn’t much other explanation for his actions. It doesn’t make much sense why he wouldn’t cut rates and try to improve the economy. We’re in a waiting period because obviously, Trump firing him at this point would certainly upset the apple cart. Therefore, we’ve got to wait until May when Trump can replace him with somebody who’s much more likely to go in there, cut rates, and start money printing again.
I’m not saying this was good for the economy or anything long term, but that’ll certainly boost asset prices, which is what most of the people in this room are looking for.
Chaman
Awesome. Thanks for your insights, Mati. I’m going to open it up to the floor to see who wants to touch that. I love the contrarian view on stagflation. Let’s open it up: Anna, Faraj, Dean.
Faraj
I think overall, as I understand analysts’ reports, the growth is slowing down in the US. At the same time, inflation stays high. Some economists believe that this is due to the tariffs, due to some other aspects rather than a growing economy.
The analysts are indeed worrying. J.P. Morgan believes that it might lead, after some stagflation, to the recession. Chances for that are basically around 40%, which is close to half, by second half – I would say end of 2025 – to see the economics in recession.
I don’t see this in the stock market. It’s still spiky, but it’s still healthy and shows no signs of recession. I think signs are there. Obviously, Donald Trump and his economics drive towards lower interest rates at the time of high inflation doesn’t create a lot of certainty around the US economy. It doesn’t drive a lot of certainty around investors.
It’s a challenging environment. I remember in the beginning, I was trying to take a historical perspective. In the beginning of the year, there were way more analysts predicting the recession already to happen. They were saying though, in June, July, August, that recession will start. The chances for recession were way higher, especially when tariffs hit. Everyone was predicting it to be super bearish for the entire economy.
I see, on the contrary, some developments that might actually indicate that the economy is way stronger than it was expected to be. To me, the Web3 initiatives like Stablecoin Act and Genius Act, in my opinion, they bring a lot of tools to eat up inflation in a way, to bring investors that will lock in the treasuries and in return for stables that basically is circling within its own ecosystem.
For the normal economy, what does it mean? That a lot more investors are locking up their assets into treasuries, which gives way more, I would say, easy money for the government to spend and to avoid the crisis straight away. The tariff politics also slowed down. It’s not without the risk to get escalated again, but it’s still there.
I would say, yes, some economists predict the situation to worsen up, but who knows what this AI, Web3, all these new technologies would bring. NVIDIA and all these high-tech stocks are soaring again. It’s an interesting time. The risk is there always, but I believe that similar to JP Morgan, I’m 50-50 on the chances that it will lead to recession or it will just be a small hiccup on the way and it just will continue to grow.
Chaman
Awesome. Thank you, Faraj. I’m going to open it up to the rest of the room. Your own take on this, if you want to throw in a response either for or against anything you heard. Let’s keep things interesting and have at it. Anna, Dean, who’s up?
Anna
Happy to go. I think there are a few things that are maybe not or maybe overseen right now, especially if we look at the middle class. There’s a lot of confusion when it comes to the tariffs and there is a lot of distraction going on.
I think if we really get into it, there are a lot of things that we need to consider. The supply is getting heavily accelerated right now. There are a lot of different things that need to be fast-tracked, especially in the energy sector and everything related to grid building and everything related to critical minerals, infrastructure.
All of this right now is delayed. Why? Because there’s not enough high-skill immigration. With all the different political situations around immigration, there is a downsizing of productivity. That again, if you add it to the tariffs, right, it’s heavily going to affect the supply at some point.
The U.S. does not have the capacity to actually reskill the force. They don’t have the capacity to actually set to work plans that are not working for the last 20 years. I think we have a serious set of troubles that have to be recalibrated somehow to fix the supply. Then when it comes to, let’s say, research and when it comes to other types of incentives, everything is going down in that sense.
Everyone in the industry, in pharmaceuticals specifically, is bowing down to continue the research in other markets because it’s not sustainable in the States at this point. I think we are looking at a serious bubble that will need to get deactivated, probably putting those tariffs to sleep or, I don’t know, we need to see what are they planning to do with that specifically.
Chaman
Awesome. Thank you, Anna. Is there more around that? Talking to the one person who hasn’t chimed in yet.
Dean
I’m not a macro guy. I’m known for making fun of the macro hand-wavy guys who can’t trade for shit. I’m just more of practical common sense. Elon tried to give austerity a shot. Clearly, Trump and the administration doesn’t want that to happen. We’re going to most likely go like every other currency that’s ever been circulated in any major civilization, just more money printing.
In which case, we’ve got to own assets. The question is what type of assets and when. Obviously, there’s a lot of signs of froth right now with Chamath going back on his SPAC binge and trying to pump Opendoor and all this nonsense that’s happening with ETH treasury vehicles.
I was secretly praying, not so secretly praying for Elon and Doge to actually work because I would love to see some common sense return back to the market. Unfortunately, people love spending money that’s not theirs and are addicted to that. We’ve got to play the game that the regulators and the politicians put in place.
Chaman
There you go, man. I love that. Pumping a fist at power has never really ended well or getting anyone what they want. You don’t believe me? Just ask my wife.
I’m a big fan of this idea of somebody’s got to buy the robots we’re building. With that in mind, there’s this balance of power between labor force and job providers and creators that history has proven to be one-sided in a very large way, except for a couple of times in history. I won’t go on about that, but I love talking about the macro side. I love the idea that you’re not a macro guy and you’re still here. Even with that, like the insights, you have a real talk. Thank you, Dean.
I’m going to take a little pivot further into this conversation with a follow-up. Let’s talk safe haven assets. Gold ETFs hit their highest holdings since 2022. Treasury saw close to $78 billion. Someone can fact check that. I read this last night. Billion of net inflows. I think that was in June alone. My question to the floor is, what does the move into safe haven assets tell us? What does it tell us about confidence in the current economic policy? What does it tell us about maybe something else as you deduce the information and the reality of the move into safe haven assets?
Mati
It means that money managers are retarded, first of all.
Chaman
Do we have any money managers in the room?
Mati
I’m sorry, but I can’t imagine a scenario when I would actually lend money to a government entity. They’re notoriously bad with money. Governments are incentivized to spend as much money as they can, whether it’s helpful or not, and for as long as they can and push the debt down the road because politicians are temporary.
They get the initiatives. They get credit for the initiatives that they create and the money that they spend. Then the next guy has to deal with the debt. That’s true across the board. A president is in power for four to eight years. He has no incentive to make sure that what he’s spending is sustainable.
This is in contrast with a corporation where corporations are incentivized to make money at all costs, even as we’ve seen many times at the cost of ethical or moral concerns. But a government just doesn’t have that incentive. It’s easier for a government to increase budgets than to actually figure out who’s doing their job and who’s not doing their job and start firing people who aren’t because governments don’t generally fire people.
It’s uncomfortable to do. If you’re spending other people’s money, why wouldn’t you keep a guy on who’s not doing anything? Who cares? That’s the situation that we have in the US government. That’s what Trump ran on with Elon Musk. I don’t know how much that’s being done or not done at this point.
But bonds and bond markets have always been bewildering to me because we’ve had the Fed chairman himself come out and say that the US debt level is unsustainable and it’s getting worse. Eventually, it’s going to blow up. You say low risk, but someone’s going to get left holding that bag.
Chaman
I hear you. Now, let me ask you this, Mati. With the current political power and the background that they have that isn’t traditionally politics, do you think that shifts the ball a little bit?
A bit of a follow-up question for you. Tell me what you think. Is there any change or shift in paradigm that’s possible based on the fact that we don’t have a traditional politician?
That’s arguable, but you get the point. We have a businessman who came into politics and is trying to take the country forward. Do you think that plays any role?
The other part is, haven’t we been singing the song about how this bubble is going to blow up since Bush Sr.? What are your thoughts around that? A mild and respectful challenge for you, Mati, as well as curiosity.
Mati
Predicting an economic crisis is a lot like predicting an earthquake. You know that one happens once every 20 years or so, but exactly where and when and how severe it’s going to be is really impossible to predict exactly.
Yes, I do believe that Trump is probably cut from a different cloth than most politicians. I’ve always been frustrated with the whole game that they play. The politician on the left and the politician on the right are both funded by the same people. They’re just puppets on two different hands.
It does seem like Trump is a bit different than that, but he still is very self-interested. There’s no denying that. I was quite optimistic that he might keep Elon Musk on for more than a few months, which I understood was a possibility that he’d let him go pretty quickly.
I’m very fazed by that. I’m disappointed by that. When he came out with this big, beautiful bill and this big spending bill, I think that that was a nail in the coffin where you just say, okay, well, there isn’t much difference here. He’s just going to keep spending money in a way that’s unsustainable.
It might fuel growth temporarily while he’s in power, especially enough to get him elected for a second term. Long term, the country’s fucked. I don’t really hold out much hope. Obviously, I hope, but I don’t think that there’s a great chance of this being any different. I think that we’re going to see something catastrophic happen in those markets at some point in the future.
Chaman
Good news, Mati. By the way, you’re invited to my Christmas dinner with my family because I like to watch popcorn and see the world catch on fire every once in a while, so long as it actually doesn’t.
I want to circle back to the original question. We have People Are Fucking Idiots by Mati Greenspan as an answer to the question of what is the move into safe, even assets that tell us about confidence in current economic policy? I’m going to push that to the floor, open to the speakers. Faraj, Dean, who we haven’t heard from.
Anna
I think the confidence in the US institutions is going down and I don’t see any positive turn to that in the near term. If you look at what’s happening in gold and Bitcoin, I think it’s a clear sign of the skepticism that everyone’s having around the fiscal sustainability and the fiat dilution risk.
I think that’s where we are. I think there is a serious macro mismanagement. I don’t think we are resilient enough to get out of this before it blows. That’s where I think we’re heading.
I agree with Mati on that.
Chaman
All right. Thank you, Anna. Are there any other thoughts around that?
Faraj
I believe that gold is around 26% up to date and everyone knows how Bitcoin is testing all-time high. Still, the stock market is also high. Whether it is Bitcoin considered to be a safe haven or opposite, it’s just a risky asset that people put their money in as part of their portfolios, we don’t know.
But if we consider Bitcoin as a defensive asset, it definitely is up. At the same time, the interest towards US treasuries is not as good as historically would be seen in case people expect a recession to happen. I’m not pro the theme that the US is getting downhill, in my opinion.
Every country has its own issues and America is still the number one economy in the world. It has a lot of, of course, pressure from China and other developing nations. However, still, America produces the majority of the goods and services in the world that are in high demand.
If you look on S&P 500, you will understand why. In my opinion, unless there is a very strong recession indicator, like for example, 10-year inversion of the yield curve, where 10-year treasuries are way higher return, the demand for them is way, way higher than for the year or short-term treasuries. Or any other indicators like unemployment growth or anything else, I wouldn’t say that the economy will be free fall very soon.
So, in my opinion, in general, as Mati mentioned, you cannot predict the recession, the depth of it, how long will it take actually, from which angle it will come. So, it’s always wise to have a diversified portfolio of different assets to secure you from this downfall.
And we, all of us that are coming from Web3, perhaps we consider Bitcoin to be a defensive asset and hope that every one of us keeps some of it. But at the same time, the more diversified you are, the more you are protected against such swings and the less you need to think about macroeconomics and where the tide will go.
In my opinion, every one of us that are talking right now have another 30-40 years of working time, so it will not be the last recession that will be coming. And if we will be placing our bets smartly, diversify the portfolio, keep it evenly based, rebalance every now and then, consider age, consider your family situation, etc.
Staying in the market sometimes is the best, with diversified assets, is actually best. Rather than playing around and expecting that tomorrow is going to be a recession, I will be all cash and no recession will come. I remember after 2008, every second year, people would predict another double dip.
For 15 years, we had a straight growth. So anyone who would be exiting the market in anticipation of the recession, despite short-term fluctuations in defensive assets, would be at a loss compared to those that would be just sitting in the market.
So yeah, that’s my thoughts on that.
Chaman
Thanks, Faraj. It’s that greed and fear thing, right? You’re too greedy to get out or you’re too scared to get in. It keeps a lot of people stuck.
Dean, maybe I’ll circle to you and kind of add a pivot to the question, because what do you define as a safe haven asset? And I know me personally right now, I don’t want to have my money in a shoebox under my bed. That’s a bank account for everybody who doesn’t get it.
And non-correlated returns are really interesting to me. Things that have risk but aren’t really affected by a Trump tariff. They might be affected by a wildfire in California, i.e. reinsurance or litigation finance or other alpha that offers non-correlated returns.
My question, Dean, maybe you can add some nuance to your answer and say, what’s a good place to be parking some money right now as it relates to what’s going on in the macro world or what you find interesting?
Dean
Yeah, I think for me, I’m a bit of a skeptic. I’ve just seen people and went through too many scams to not be. I think there’s no such thing as a safe haven asset.
And anybody that thinks that you can close your eyes, put your assets into something for 10 years and not look at it – unless it’s S&P over the past 40 years – it’s very hard to say anything else potentially like that. For me, I was brought up as a Graham-and-Dodd guy.
And that value investing style basically does not work or has not worked for 10 to 20 years because there’s so much money printing going on. And so you’re forced to play the speculation game of buying now and selling to somebody at a higher price, which I don’t mind playing. And I’ve gotten quite good at it.
But the issue is that that gives me the confidence to step in and buy at elevated valuations if things are really going to shit. You’re trading in and out of these things. And the first sign that there’s going to be a prolonged period of market uncertainty where people won’t step in and buy because the volunteer is trading at 200 times the year’s forward revenues – it’s just a tough place to have somebody have real confidence and say, “I will buy. If it goes lower, I’ll buy more.”
That being said, you make money in the markets by buying low and selling high. I need to find that as a real time frame. So for me, I’m a trader, right? So I really like short-term stuff.
So I don’t have to be exposed to a lot of crazy stuff that’s outside of my control and just doing that over and over again in assets that I know, work into, and have a good gauge of how to manage risk, how to think about pricing, and expanding that confidence over time.
Chaman
Awesome, man. Thanks. I think it was you last week – something about your belly, I hope it’s doing better today.
Let’s go on the other side of things. There’s a little bit of sunlight over on the other side of the pond for anyone in North America.
India’s market is getting a bit of a boost. The deficit narrowed by almost 21 billion in June and is helped by cheaper oil imports, lower gold demand. Add that to the S&P’s upgrade on India’s macroeconomic stability, plus government proposals to cut GST on small cars. There’s no surprise that markets are rallying out in India.
I had to Google all this stuff, by the way. I’m born and raised in Canada, but I like to do my homework and it’s always nice to hear about some sunlight happening for my ancestors back home.
Question to the floor is, Faraj, being that you have a background and some domain experience, I’m going to start with you and I’m going to ask you, how much do lower oil prices help India’s trade balance and government finances?
Faraj
It definitely helps a lot because oil is one of the main imports for India. If the main category of import suddenly becomes cheaper, the budget saves a lot. Those budgets can be reallocated either into growth, into supporting the economy, into supporting some other things.
India is also having a large petrochemical base, Reliance Technologies. They could import a lot of oil and supply with petrol and gasoline and all those products like plastics. Not only the Indian market, but also the Thai, Asian, Southeast Asia.
The markups on the products are two, three, sometimes ten times more than the crude cost itself. It definitely is helpful. India is one of the most populated countries on earth. Internal demand is huge. And energy is one of the first things that people use, be it during the cold months or during the hot months for AC, so electricity generation.
In general, I would say it’s very, very helpful to have oil prices there for longer. Any geopolitical shocks obviously can change that situation overnight, like the issue with the war that happened between Israel and Iran is an example of that. So oil prices can spike and stay high for a long time in case this war continues or something like that happens again in the Middle East.
But also the sanctions that the US might place on India for buying Russian oil, for example, also could be impactful. However, in my opinion and what I’ve seen lately, national interests are way, way more prevalent. This is shown by the example of Iran, which is under very severe sanctions for nearly 40 years or maybe more. And still it produces around 4 million barrels a day—roughly 4% of world oil production is with Iran.
Russia, for example, is around 12, which is 12% of world oil production, plus or minus. And majority of it, of course, goes to India and China and other Southeast Asian countries.
So basically, what I want to say is India has ways of accepting that kind of oil that is under sanctions for their own use, be it for petrochemical industry or for straightaway converting it to the energy source for electricity generation or for gasoline for internal use. So yeah, definitely positive.
Chaman
Awesome. If you want one more person to chime in on that question, the floor is open. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Mati
I would not have any way of knowing what’s best for the East Asian economy, unfortunately. But I would like to kind of take a stab at your previous question about where do people put their money?
And I mean, yeah, you mentioned like under your bed, which obviously, I mean, you’re kind of joking about that. But I mean, putting your money under your bed means, well, you’re, first of all, exposed to the deflation and devaluation of your currency, which is openly being done by government entities. They actually want your money to go down in value over time. It’s their way of keeping the elite up and the poor down.
And then keeping it under your bed is obviously not a great solution, because somebody can come in and steal it or a fire could happen. But keeping it in a bank account, I mean, that’s not much better. It’s basically, that’s like keeping it under the thief’s bed.
So I would definitely recommend that anybody who’s sitting on cash or any sort of beyond what they need for living, that that be invested somewhere. Even with stock markets being very high. And even with Bitcoin being at an all-time high.
And Bitcoin is specifically designed and well suited to solve this issue. But that’s not to say that it’s not volatile. And, you know, we see volatility kind of as a feature rather than a bug, which allows people to kind of wait for better prices or get out when things are better.
But I think that even in the stock market, there’s never been a drawdown in the stock market from peak to peak of longer than 10 years. And so it’s imperative to understand that fiat money is designed to go down in value. And then asset prices tend to go up in value.
And whether you choose to invest in Bitcoin or the S&P 500, or to look for specific stocks that you feel are going to – companies that you feel are going to grow in value over the next five or 10 years – whatever of those three you choose, it’s going to be better than keeping your money in a bank or under a mattress.
That right there tells everybody that they need to start doing research. And now with AI, it’s a lot easier to start getting into that sort of stuff and understanding what the best path for you to choose is.
Chaman
Thanks, Mati. I mean, I couldn’t have put it better. The “under the mattress, under the bed” was an analogy for a bank account, which is also just a way of burning your money.
You can’t get ahead without taking risks. The more calculated they are, the better. I’m 100% with you. The question is just what?
For me personally, it’s like – I got a life to live, man. I’m not trying to look at a computer all day. But then there are guys like Dean, who I know, trust, and like to handle my money for me.
And then there are also just non-correlated asset classes, like private alternatives, that are beginning to feel more and more good for me right now. These safe haven assets – it really looks like the world, or the people that are a little wiser – they’re not parking it there for the long term. They’re just foreseeing a buying opportunity.
And I’d like to remind the listeners: you didn’t make anything or lose anything until you sell it. So think about that.
We’re going to circle forward, because we’re five minutes to the top of the hour. And I know people have lives to live. We’re going to talk about the UK – going a little bit north and across the pond from North America here.
The UK consumer sentiment is finally improving, apparently. August reading rose to 47, which is the highest in 10 months. This is after the Bank of England cut rates from 4.25 by 25 basis points to 4 percent.
Still, though, the index remains low, below the neutral 50 mark, and showing optimism is fragile while inflation and food prices remain sticky.
So the question to the guests who haven’t answered the last question – maybe we’ll start with them: can better consumer sentiment lead to steady spending, or is it still too weak given ongoing inflation?
Don’t make me pick somebody.
Mati
I’m sorry, I was typing – could you repeat the question?
Chaman
Yeah, I got you. No problem. It’s just regarding the idea of UK consumer confidence improving.
And to be clear, I’m not expecting you to be an expert. We’re asking for your opinion because your opinion is valued, and that’s why you’re here.
The question is: can better consumer sentiment lead to steady spending, or is it still too weak given ongoing inflation?
Mati
Yeah, I’m having difficulty analyzing that sort of data from the United Kingdom when there’s so much happening there geopolitically. It’s just kind of like hyper-focused on the wrong stuff.
Quarter over quarter, even if things are going to hell, some things are going to tick up and some are going to tick down. I think that just a specific metric might not be that useful.
Again, I’m not an expert on this, but to just mention a specific metric and say consumer spending has gone up – gone up from where? It would be helpful to look at that on a graph, analyzed over time, and say, “Okay, it’s doing well or not doing well. This is what it normally does.” See if it’s anywhere near historic levels or not. Very difficult to tell just from one announcement.
So you’d want to analyze the entire picture.
But just looking at everything coming out from there on social media, the situation in the UK – and actually having been there a few times in the last couple of years – it’s pretty scary. I think we’re looking at a potential catastrophe as far as the migration situation and freedom of speech and people’s rights getting trampled. And that never leads to a good place.
Unless they can turn around the political situation and the political landscape, I would not be investing a dime there. Literally. I mean, I’ll support specific people. I have many people on my staff from the UK, very talented people.
But as far as building a business in the UK, it makes absolutely no sense. You’ll very quickly be in a situation where there’s some form of communism happening or a totalitarian state. Those things happen throughout history more often than anybody would think – governments abusing power.
I’d mention Australia as well as going down that path at the moment. It’s scary stuff. And if you’re looking for where to invest your money – that’s not where it would be for me.
Chaman
Yeah, fair enough. You know, it’s funny – you remind me of something. He’s not famous, but he’s a good friend of mine, probably one of the smartest people I know who actually isn’t successful.
He always says, “I focus less on what the information is, but more on who’s pushing the narrative. And from there, I’m able to deduce what’s actually happening.”
Mati Greenspan, a person for the people all day.
So I’m going to circle back to something maybe a little more tangible.
Anna
If I can add something to what Mattie was sharing. I’m in Dubai, and we get a lot right now from what’s happening in the UK.
Everyone is aware that wealth migration is very important, especially coming from the UK right now. I think they want to paint numbers or paint the situation where they talk about confidence being up, but the cash flow reality will always rule and determine the spending line.
What we see from here is a heavy influx of British moving permanently to Dubai.
We are receiving – like never before – offers for real estate investment in the UK with the most ridiculous conditions and with the lowest prices you can imagine.
So if you really look at what’s happening, you see a lot of Americans, Africans, and Indians purchasing across London as never before, because it’s so accessible due to what’s happening.
Keeping the Bank of England in mind, I don’t think the growth has any potential, at least in the next 24 months. And obviously wages are not accompanying the reality of the market.
So what we are seeing here is a heavy influx that’s just going to grow further. I don’t want to talk about communism like Mati said, I don’t want to get into those opinions.
But I do think it’s a very inconvenient situation they have generated with the wealthy and with the new taxes they’ve implemented. I don’t see sustainability in any of it.
Chaman
Thank you, Anna. Very good insights.
In the building that I live in alone, there are five people I know who are making like a tree and effing off from Canada and going somewhere else to address opportunity.
It’s the same thing my parents did 50 years ago when they came to Canada.
I want to end with a question that might leave the listeners with something to take away and implement in their lives, as it comes to your insights on how households can change their behavior.
Should they cut back on discretionary spending, stick to essentials, shift to discount brands, or something entirely different?
What advice or insights or opinions do you have for the people that are on the floor during this time of uncertainty, that probably don’t have 8–12 hours to stare at a screen, learn about what’s going on, and make calculated decisions in the moment?
Let’s open that up to Dean and Faraj. Whoever wants to shoot first – have at it.
Dean
Yeah, I think it’s just common sense. Common sense, right? Don’t overspend your income, learn a high leverage skill that you can make money with. Just stay away from, as Munger says, leverage, liquor and ladies, right? It’s just common sense, but I think common sense is very rare these days. So people love to overspend their income, rack up, you know, 20% plus credit card debt, and then basically pretend like they’re rich, but can’t afford anything because they’re just living paycheck to paycheck.
With the advent of AI, I think a lot of major professions are going to be disrupted. We’re seeing it happen live. So I don’t think it makes sense to go into a serious amount of debt to come out the other end in a profession that potentially could just get steamrolled.
There are a lot of young kids that I’m around, and they’re extremely successful. I’m talking like early to mid-20s, and they’re worth millions of liquid. And it’s because they just either dropped out of high school or college and basically said, hey, this is a scam. I’m going to figure out a way to make money and figure out a niche, right? Whether it’s online selling some type of product or trading or any other avenue. And I respect them a lot because I think I’m kind of a bit older in the generation that actually went – like everybody went to college if you kind of wanted to pursue a career in finance. And so there really weren’t that many alternatives when I was going through the system, but you’re seeing a lot of these young killers come off the pipeline. I’m very impressed by what they’ve done.
So yeah, I think being very aware and just playing around with ChatGPT and other AI tools, just to be aware of how powerful they are and how much more powerful they become every day, so you’re not left behind. And being very careful about how you invest your money, time and energy, making sure that it’s aligned with a version of the future that’s more probably going to happen than not.
Chaman
Love it. Thank you. Does anyone else want to chime in? Faraj, you have some thoughts for the people, what they can do?
Faraj
Yeah, I mean, I completely agree with Dean on everything he said. Actually, we met in Dubai a few years ago and I was really impressed with his knowledge and his insights.
So I would say every one of us and every one of the listeners, they already have their own vision of the reality. And as Dean said, this reality is being changed by AI. And the first thing to do is perhaps get your ChatGPT, load it up with your data, load it up with what your skills are, what your interests are, where you are at your work, where you are a professional, where you are in the setting of society, which city you are, are you happy, are you not happy, what’s your family situation, all that.
And then start slowly asking questions about what should I do, what do you see in the economics around me that would be fit for my skill set, or which skill set should I take on. And slowly start digging up different skill sets that you could use for getting better. And do not take an easy way approach and try to cut corners and expect great results fast – nothing comes fast. But by keeping yourself from vices, by keeping yourself a little bit more disciplined and taking small steps at a time, you could do way better tomorrow than where you are today.
The idea is to become like 1% better every day. And this compounds to enormous success in 10 years from now. If you just stay away from something that can drag you down – which could be a divorce, which could be alcoholism or drugs or anything like that – you already would be better than maybe 40% of people around you.
By reading some books, by learning some new skills, by talking to AI, by keeping work on your relationships and keeping yourself fit and healthy and psychologically healthy as well. This will keep you better than 70% of all the people around. And then the rest of the 30 depends how ambitious you are.
You want to really put it all in, and the earlier you are in life, the more of that energy you should have and apply it to work skills. The later you are in life, the more you should perhaps think about: are you really loving what you do? Are you really building what you will be thankful for yourself spending time on eventually? Or are you just doing it in order to gain some money to sustain yourself only physically?
Those questions, answering those questions, probably finding your own purpose will just help you tremendously in life whenever your midlife crisis will come or not. And working on your passion will probably make you happier. And if you’re happy, it means you’re successful.
There are a lot of people that are extremely wealthy, but completely unhappy. What you really need to look for is meaning in life, not having biases, spending your life in a nice, kind way to others, staying healthy, thinking about your family connections.
And as Dean said, keep a diversified portfolio of assets. Do not keep all your eggs in the same basket. Do not over-leverage yourself in anything except for maybe a mortgage that you could afford. And that’s it. That will be a good recipe for life, regardless of whatever happens at the macro level.
Chaman
You know, I couldn’t have said it better than most of the people in this room. I’m going to be a little bit prickly when I say: hey, your dad missing one too many dance recitals or the fact that the president you voted for isn’t in power is not the reason why your life is where it is. Put down the pitchforks and the torches, pick up a skill, move your feet, pick up a mop.
The reality is, and believe it or not, your beliefs put more limitations on you than your excuses ever will.
Thank you to our special guests. Thank you to everyone for listening. We are Gamma Prime. We are the marketplace for private alternative investments that offer superior, non-correlated returns. Post-revenue, pre-launch, we are coming. The world will be ours if only you join us.
Thank you everybody for coming today. We’ll see you all next week.
